Chapter 3 - Continuation Bets

Allow me to get into what I call, "The Fourth Bullet Syndrome."

Okay, so lets take the two best types of starting hands in No-Limit Texas Holdem, either painted cards, or pocket pair. When I say painted cards, that would mean, either ace-king, ace-queen/jack, king-queen/jack. And when I say pocket pair, I mean any pocket pair, even with duce's you are starting out better than most opponents.

The scenario...
Either way, you start out with one of these hands, lets say Ace-King, and you raise. Your raise should limit the amount of people in the hand, hopefully taking it down to two or three people. Flop comes, you don't hit. It's checked to you, you bet again. You get called by both players. By this time you're thinking if they called pre-flop raise and after the flop bets then they either hit the flop or they got a pocket pair, either way, your ace-king is no good...or is it?

Well there are some things you have to consider here. They called your pre-flop raise, yes they did, but with what? If they're playing like regular people, who are playing to win then you can limit their hands to either high cards, suited connectors, or pocket pair.

Now, pre-flop if they do have high cards, then they cannot have you beat (remember, we're still playing Ace-King), the best they can have is the same value as you. Remember, they could have called your pre-flop raise with king-queen, king-jack, or queen-jack, either way in those three cases you have them beat (probably dominated). If they have a big ace (outside of the king) then you have them dominated. Use this information as you play the hand. Remember this, there is a statistical chance of 66% that your opponent will not hit the flop. As the person with the high value hand, it is your job to bet out your opponent when the chances are he doesn't have a hand. Get him to fold before he gets one.

If your opponent is holding a pocket pair, then they have you beat. You have to find a way to manipulate the hand to get them to fold. Flop comes and its low, anywhere from 2-9, they probably still have you beat. At this time you have to wait for a scare card. On the turn if you get a pair, paint, flush draw, or straight draw, you have all the reason, as well as you should, bet again. They could still have you beat, and all you're doing up to this point is bluffing, semi-bluffing at best. After the river comes, do you have it in you to bet again. It could be that this final bet dictates whether or not your opponent folds.

Now you're stuck in the zone. Do you fire away again for a final time after 5th street with absolute nothing, but high cards? Your opponent probably didn't hit. He could have been on a draw, if so, you have to get him/her to fold. Another scenario, your opponent could have it bottom pair, and thinking you didn't hit with your high cards, called you down, hoping that you're not going to make him pay with that bottom pair. Let me tell you right now, if someone is calling you down with bottom pair you better make'em pay for it!

Your betting is kind of dependant on what is on the board. If the board is not high, or maybe one or two painted cards, then it is reasonable to believe that your opponent did not connect and you still have the best hand, so in which case, you should bet to get your opponent to fold. If there are 3-4 painted cards on the board, and you didn't hit, you may be beat. You can bet again sending you opponent a message that you still have them beat, I suggest betting hard and betting strong. Give them something that's not in their best interest to call.

Watching what you are betting and raising throughout the hand is also key. At a $25/$50 blind level, I call someone who raises to $200, and they bet another $200 on the flop, and maybe the same on the turn, their hand will begin to reek of continuation bet. This is commonly done by the inexperienced player. A good re-raise can take them off the hand. On the other hand, some of the more experienced players try to get creative with their continuation bets, but believe me when I say they are out there everywhere. A continuation bet will be done on every poker table you play on.

Bottomline is, many people will raise with a big ace pre-flop. Many of them will follow up that raise with a bet after the flop, no matter what it is. Some of the more aggressive players will continue to bet with nothing after the turn. But when someone is still being called at that point, it can literally make or break you to send that river bet, the fourth attempt, that final message to represent whatever hand you want to represent. A good player can see through attempts to fire away at pots, but most players will not think anyone will have it in them to make a final bluff on the river.

Remember, representation before taxation.